WTO annual report: Russia-Ukraine conflict jeopardizes global trade recovery

The World Trade Organization's annual global trade forecast report released on the 12th believes that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine jeopardizes the already fragile recovery of global trade.

The report predicts that due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the world merchandise trade volume will increase by 3.0% in 2022, which is lower than the previous forecast of 4.7%; the growth rate in 2023 will be 3.4%.

According to simulation forecasts by WTO economists, the global economy at market exchange rates is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2022, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous forecast of 4.1%. Global economic growth will pick up to 3.2% in 2023, close to the 3.0% average growth rate from 2010 to 2019.

According to the report, output in the CIS region (excluding Ukraine) is expected to fall sharply by 7.9% in 2022, while imports in the region will shrink by 12.0%.

According to the analysis of the report, the most direct economic impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is the sharp rise in commodity prices. Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of basic commodities such as food, energy and fertilizers, and grain shipments through Black Sea ports have stopped, with potentially serious consequences for food security in low-income countries.

WTO Director-General Ivira said that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has damaged the world economy, and its negative impact has been transmitted to all parts of the world. Low-income countries will face a particularly severe threat. Reduced supply and rising food prices will have a serious impact on the lives of low-income people. Influence.

Iweala called for governments and multilateral organizations to work together to promote trade in the face of inflation and supply chain pressures. "Restricting trade will threaten the well-being of households and businesses and make the task of building a durable economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic even more difficult," she said.